A 40-90 m wide ‘city destroyer’ asteroid known as 2024 YR4 is on a collision course to Earth set to potentially impact in 2032. 

Discovered on the 27th of December 2024, NASA originally estimated the asteroid to have under a 1% chance of impacting Earth in 2032, steadily rising to 2.6% in January and then to a slightly concerning 3.1% last week. Luckily, the probability of impact has significantly dropped to 0.004% as of yesterday and is expected to safely pass by Earth in 2032.

Space Communications and Tracking at UNSW Canberra, a founding body of the Southern Hemisphere Asteroid Research Consortium is playing a vital role in the international tracking effort of the 2024 YR4 asteroid. Professor Ed Kruzins has said that “Australia’s geographic position in the southern hemisphere is important because it allows scientists to observe asteroids from the south, filling the gap of telescopes that are predominantly located in the northern hemisphere”.

Whilst the chance of an impact in 2032 at this stage is highly unlikely, scientists around the world will continue to closely monitor the situation over the next few years.

Image: Image: Shuttershock – Romolo Tavali

Produced By: Maeve Groom

Featured In Story: Professor Ed Kruzins – Space Communications and Tracking UNSW Canberra

First aired on The Wire, Wednesday 26 February 2025